Alternative Fuels and India's Transition to Sustainable Transportation
Need for Diverse Alternatives: To combat rising vehicular emissions, a broader focus on alternatives like ethanol blending and Green Hydrogen (GH) is needed, rather than solely pushing electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid powertrains.
Deloitte India Report: The report "Fuels of the Future: Exploring Alternative Fuel Options for Transport" discusses India's shift towards sustainable energy solutions.
Decline of Natural Gas (NG) and LPG:
NG and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) adoption is expected to decline due to more sustainable and less import-dependent alternatives.
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is popular due to lower costs and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but is expected to peak by 2040.
LPG, although economical with a lower carbon footprint than petrol and diesel, faces challenges due to higher production costs and safety concerns.
Rise of Biofuels and Green Hydrogen:
Biofuels and GH are in their early stages but are expected to grow significantly with policy support and technological advancements.
Government initiatives like the National Hydrogen Mission and bio-CNG plants are crucial to this growth.
Bioethanol blending is targeted to reach 20% by 2025, and GH adoption is expected to increase, particularly in heavy-duty vehicles.
Electric Vehicles (EVs):
EVs are set to lead India's sustainable transport transition.
Despite COVID-19 disruptions, global EV sales exceeded 10 million units in 2022, with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) making up 70%.
Deloitte forecasts annual EV sales to reach 31.1 million units by 2030, driven by government support and decreasing production costs.
The Indian government's FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) scheme supports EV adoption, with significant funding aimed at enhancing the EV ecosystem and local manufacturing.
Challenges and Opportunities in EV Adoption:
Challenges include high costs, reliance on imported lithium-ion batteries, limited charging infrastructure, and battery safety concerns.
The government's efforts to promote local manufacturing and reduce import dependency are expected to address these issues over time.
Opportunities with Alternative Fuels:
Bio-CNG and LNG present promising opportunities.
Government initiatives like bio-CNG plants and LNG stations are driving adoption.
For example, a bio-CNG plant in Indore produces 19,000 kg of bio-CNG per day, showcasing the potential of renewable fuels.
Long-term Adoption Scenarios:
EVs are expected to dominate until 2040-2045, after which greener fuels may take precedence.
Domestic production of biofuels and GH is expected to rise significantly from 2025 onwards, supported by government policies and technological advancements.